HeatSpec Guide

Certified systems / Carrier

Carrier 38MPRBQ12AA3

Matched with the 40MPHBQ12XA3 indoor unit, this system is certified to the ENERGY STAR cold-climate criteria and publishes 12.00 HSPF2 and 27.00 SEER2, with 13,700 BTU/h of heating at 5°F.

Heating capacity of the Carrier 38MPRBQ12AA3 at three outdoor temperatures, in BTU per hour. Paired with 40MPHBQ12XA3: 13,700 at 5°F, 10,400 at 17°F, 12,000 at 47°F. Paired with 40MPHAQ12XA3: 12,000 at 5°F, 10,400 at 17°F, 12,000 at 47°F.

Cold-climate certified by ENERGY STAR. 2 certified pairings plotted; the heavy line is the 40MPHBQ12XA3 pairing. Points are the only three heating capacities the dataset publishes for this system; the lines between them are drawn to join those points and are not measurements. ENERGY STAR Certified Heat Pumps, retrieved 2026-10-16.

What these numbers are and are not. SEER2, EER2, HSPF2 and the COP at 5°F are results from a standard rating procedure, measured at fixed temperatures and airflow in a laboratory. They are not predictions for your house, your climate or your winter. Two systems with the same HSPF2 can use different amounts of electricity in the same building, and the same system will perform differently in Boston and in Atlanta. Use the published capacity at 5°F to judge whether a system still produces heat on a cold night; use HSPF2 only to compare systems with each other.

Carrier 38MPRBQ12AA3 published specifications

Every figure below is the value the dataset publishes for ENERGY STAR ID 2410502. Nothing is calculated except the two rows marked as ours.
Outdoor unit38MPRBQ12AA3
Indoor unit40MPHBQ12XA3 (38MP-series)
Cold-climate certifiedYes
ENERGY STAR Most EfficientYes
SEER227.00 Btu/Wh
EER214.00 Btu/Wh
HSPF212.00 Btu/Wh
Cooling capacity12,000 BTU/h
Heating capacity at 47°F12,000 BTU/h
Heating capacity at 17°F10,400 BTU/h
Heating capacity at 5°F13,700 BTU/h
COP at 5°F1.85
Compressor stagingContinuously variable
RefrigerantR-410A
Date certified2026-04-17
ENERGY STAR ID / AHRI reference2410502 / 207614950
5°F capacity as a share of 47°F (ours)114.2%
Capacity class (ours)12,000 BTU/h nominal

Source. ENERGY STAR Certified Heat Pumps, U.S. EPA, retrieved 2026-10-16 from the dataset's Socrata API. Record identified by ENERGY STAR ID 2410502, AHRI reference 207614950. Certification partner: Carrier Corporation. Model numbers are reproduced exactly as published, including the asterisks ENERGY STAR carries as the manufacturer's wildcard for trim variants.

Every certified pairing for this outdoor unit

ENERGY STAR certifies an outdoor unit together with a specific indoor unit, and the ratings change with the head it is matched to. The dataset lists 2 pairings for the 38MPRBQ12AA3, so the figures above apply only to the pairing named beside them.

Indoor unitSEER2HSPF2Cooling BTU/h47°F17°F5°FCOP 5°FCold-climate
40MPHBQ12XA3 27.00 12.00 12,000 12,000 10,400 13,700 1.85 Yes
40MPHAQ12XA3 24.00 10.50 12,000 12,000 10,400 12,000 1.80 Yes

What the published capacities say about cold weather

A heat pump moves heat from outdoor air, so the colder that air gets, the less heat there is to move. The dataset publishes capacity at three outdoor temperatures, and the shape between them is the single most useful thing on this page. For the 38MPRBQ12AA3 paired with the 40MPHBQ12XA3:

That 5°F figure is higher than the 47°F figure. This is common in the dataset and is not an error in it: variable-speed systems are often rated at a maximum output at low temperature while the 47°F row reports a different operating point, and the dataset's own column metadata does not define which point each capacity represents. The figures are printed here as published, without correction, and the methodology page explains the gap.

ENERGY STAR lists this system as meeting its cold-climate criteria, which the program describes as better low-temperature heating performance, suitable for use as a home's sole heating source. That is the program's judgement on the published test data, not a promise about any particular winter or any particular house.

Running cost for a 12,000 BTU/h system like this one

Worked as an illustration, not a quote: a house that burned 600 therms of gas in a year through an 80% AFUE furnace needed about 48.0 million BTU of delivered heat. At $1.50 a therm that gas cost $900. Delivering the same heat with a heat pump rated at 12.00 HSPF2 takes 4,000 kWh, which at $0.18 a kWh costs $720. The two costs are equal at $0.225 a kWh.

Those four prices are not your prices, and HSPF2 is a rating-condition figure rather than a seasonal measurement for your climate. Change every input in the running-cost calculator, which shows each formula as it works.

Comparable systems

Same nominal capacity class (12,000 BTU/h), closest published HSPF2 to this one. Colour marks cold-climate certification.

More: all 92 certified systems, or the explainer on SEER2 vs HSPF2.