A heat pump's rating tells you less than its capacity curve

HSPF2 is one seasonal number from a laboratory. What decides whether a ductless system heats your house on a cold night is how much heat it still makes when the outdoor air is at 5°F. ENERGY STAR publishes that figure for thousands of certified systems and almost nobody plots it. Here it is, for 92 of them.

Heating capacity of the Mitsubishi Electric MUZ-FS12NA*** at three outdoor temperatures, in BTU per hour. Paired with MSZ-FS12NA***: 14,700 at 5°F, 8,400 at 17°F, 12,300 at 47°F.

Cold-climate certified by ENERGY STAR. Paired with MSZ-FS12NA***. Points are the only three heating capacities the dataset publishes for this system; the lines between them are drawn to join those points and are not measurements. ENERGY STAR Certified Heat Pumps, retrieved 2026-10-16.

Above: the Mitsubishi Electric MUZ-FS12NA*** paired with the MSZ-FS12NA***. It holds 14,700 BTU/h at 5°F, which is 119.5% of its 47°F output. See the full spec sheet.

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Cold-climate certified systems with the strongest 5°F output

Ranked on the published heating capacity at 5°F as a share of the capacity at 47°F, which is arithmetic on two dataset figures and is labelled as ours wherever it appears.

SystemBrand5°F BTU/h47°F BTU/hShareHSPF2
AOU9RLFF Fujitsu 13,400 9,000 148.9% 11.80
AOU9RLFFH Fujitsu 13,400 9,000 148.9% 11.60
GWH09ACD-D3DNA1A/O GREE 13,000 9,000 144.4% 11.00
37MAHAQ09AA3 Midea 11,500 12,000 125.6% 12.50
MUZ-FS15NA*** Mitsubishi Electric 19,400 16,000 121.2% 10.40
MUZ-FS15NAH*** Mitsubishi Electric 19,400 16,000 121.2% 9.90
MUZ-FS15NA*** Trane / Mitsubishi Electric 19,400 16,000 121.2% 10.40
AOU15RLFF Fujitsu 18,100 15,000 120.7% 10.70

Some of these shares are above 100%: the dataset publishes a higher capacity at 5°F than at 47°F for 27 of the units here. That is how the records read, and the dataset's own column metadata does not define which operating point each capacity represents, so the figures are printed uncorrected and explained on the methodology page.

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